Calculate Your Pension


California Gov. Jerry Brown championed a $7 billion tax increase last November as the fiscal medicine for California's future. After his Proposition 30 passed, Brown was exultant. At a budget presentation in early January he projected a $4.5 billion surplus and declared California was back. Not quite so much, now, however. In his budget update earlier this week, Brown cut estimates of the state's budget surplus for this year by $1.7 billion based on estimates of lower tax collections for the rest of the year. One reason is tax increases...by the federal government!


In Illinois, we have gotten used to being kept in the dark about collective bargaining with government worker unions. Recently, a bill to open up the process and require that tentative agreements be made open to the public before they are signed failed in committee.

Chief Executive magazine has released its annual survey of states that business executives say are the best for business, and the worst. It's no surprise that, over the years, business leaders have often expressed preferences for states with low levels of unionization. But as private worker union rates decline virtually everywhere, and unionization remains essentially a nonfactor in some growing industries like high tech, what's notable about the list is how the majority of states favored by firms have significantly lower rates of government worker unionization, too, according to unionstats.org


New Yorkers like Mayor Bloomberg's policies more than they do Mayor Bloomberg himself.

According to a new Manhattan Institute poll conducted by Zogby Analytics, over 2/3 of city voters believe that the next mayor of New York should either continue Bloomberg's policies, or do so "with some modifications." In most policy areas, less than 20% call for totally abandoning the Bloomberg agenda.
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In Illinois and many other states, government workers are often forced to pay union dues in order to hold on to their jobs. But a lawsuit filed on behalf of teachers in California may bring this practice to an end.

The Securities and Exchange Commission appears to have stepped over a line into uncharted territory with its charges against the city of Harrisburg for misleading investors about its financial condition. This is now the third municipal bond case the SEC has brought in three years, and the first against a city. Previously it cited Jersey and Illinois for making misleading statements in bond documents about the state of their pension funds. What is different about the Harrisburg case, however, is that the SEC has now gone beyond statements in securities registration documents. Its complaint alleges that a politician's words, namely former mayor Stephen Reed's state of the city address, also misled investors about the condition of the city's finances.
The scandal at the Baltimore City Detention Center has captured the attention of the D.C. metro area. One gang leader has allegedly sired four children with corrections officers. While drugs and sex were being trafficked, Chuck Lane of the Washington Post points out that the corrections officers' union lobbied the Maryland legislature for legislation that made it nearly impossible to transfer, fire, or discipline corrections officers. Since the law's passage in 2010, jail managers have been nearly completely emasculated. Corruption now has legal protection thanks to union political action, a point that the union now seeks to downplay.
At present, state and local governments employ 19 million Americans, 14% of total nonfarm employment. That's 725,000 fewer employees than their peak in the summer of 2008. A 3.7% drop. Total US jobs fell farther (-6.3%) from peak (January 2008) to trough (February 2010), but also began coming back earlier, and thus now stand at 1.9% below their pre-recession mark.

This year, state governments have seen net growth of 25,000 jobs, and local governments have lost 14,000, producing a net gain of 11,000. Though these figures are provisional, they suggest that possibly, maybe, four years after the recession's official end, state and local employment levels have attained a modicum of stability.

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We've all heard of governments "doing more with less" and "doing less with less" but, according to "Government Crowded Out," a new report by Dan Disalvo, the real trend is "doing less with more." The recession ended four years ago, since which time the economy has grown, but public services have seen no appreciable improvement. The increase in revenues has been absorbed by pension and healthcare costs, leaving no more room in budgets for service enhancements. Less with more. 

The report documents several examples of this "crowding out" effect in cities across the nation. In Los Angeles, pensions took up 3% of the budget ten years ago, now they're 18%. Des Moines, Iowa has raised taxes and cut back on trash collection and street cleaning in order to cope with a 20% increase in police and fire pension costs over two years. During Mayor Bloomberg's eleven-year tenure, New York's budget has grown by almost 50% on an inflation-adjusted basis. But the ranks of uniformed police and fire have declined by 3,300 due primarily to rising benefit costs.  

Fiscal instability is not only an issue nationally - driven largely by health care spending - but at the state and local levels as well. A new GAO report illustrates the magnitude of the fiscal challenges facing states, and identifies the (unsurprising) culprit:

The [simulation] show[s] that [state and local] health-related costs will be about 3.8 percent of GDP in 2013 and 7.2 percent of GDP in 2060...[t]he model projects that the [state and local] non-health-related costs will be about 10.5 percent of GDP in 2013 and about 7.7 percent of GDP in 2060.

The ever-growing burden imposed by health care spending means that, by 2060, the national state and local fiscal gap will be around 4 percent of GDP - in nominal terms, that's about $5 trillion based on CBO projections. Because health care costs - enshrined in promises to government employees and retirees, as well as Medicaid spending on the poor - will drive this growth, which is unlikely to slow down (health care spending on current employees and retirees is governed by contracts, which makes it difficult to pare back; Obamacare's Medicaid expansion ensures that, in the states that undertake it, many more residents will be covered making it more difficult to slow down its growth) other state and local outlays will fall on the chopping block. This phenomenon of "crowding out" is nothing new; because localities operate with limited funds (revenue must be raised through taxes, bond issuance, or from federal grants), each slice of the pie has to get smaller.

Indeed, the GAO report also acknowledges that wages paid to state and local employees will likely fall as a share of GDP (this phenomenon may ironically increase retirement promises that localities make to employees).

On Monday, Standard & Poor's (S&P) and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released reports on state governments' fiscal health that came to opposite conclusions. 

Here's S&P: "...we anticipate state ratings will continue to reflect generally high credit quality given that they...operate in a culture that facilitates good credit practices by global standards."

Here's GAO: "The state and local government sector continues to face near-term and long-term fiscal challenges which add to the nation's overall fiscal challenges."

How to make sense of this?
The 2014 Obama budget, released last month, includes a 28% cap on tax exemptions and deductions, a proposal the President has made so many times that people are beginning to suspect that he's serious about it. New York governor Andrew Cuomo harbors this suspicion. Almost immediately after the budget was released, Cuomo's office came out with an impressively detailed defense of the deduction for state and local taxes paid, whose restriction is a key component of the 28% cap (see table). 
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It was a classic case of man-bites-dog, although few reporters picked up on it. Here we had a liberal Democrat passionately defending a tax break that helps top filers to push their effective tax rates down to Romneyesque levels. Liberals usually scoff off concerns about tax flight, but Cuomo warns that "some fear that without [the taxed paid] deduction in place, there will be a race to the bottom as the wealthiest taxpayers consider relocating to lower tax states." Rich stuff! Isn't more-revenues-from-high-earners supposed to be a core tenet of liberal fiscal policy? 

Leave it to California's union-friendly Democratic leaders (OK, that's all of them) to take a reasonably good idea and turn it into a way to increase the size of government and pad union members' paychecks. Senate President pro tem Darrell Steinberg of Sacramento has introduced a bill based on the concept of Social Impact Bonds. Such bonds -- popularized by British conservatives who sought to impose market pressure on government services -- seek private investment to fund public services provided by non-profits. The return on investment is based on measurable standards. California's version of this concept, as I detail in my latest Bloomberg column, leaves out the non-profit aspect of this. It's basically a plan to circumvent voter approval for more borrowing to fund existing bureaucracies. No matter how poorly government performs, the state's leaders want even more of it.

A new report from the California Public Policy Center concluded that "The total outstanding government debt confronting California's taxpayers is bigger than is generally known." The total outstanding debts soar above $800 billion when all forms of debt are accounted for. The study also shows that if the state's retirement systems used a realistic rate of return on their investments (4.5 percent), then the unfunded pension liability soars to $1.1 trillion. California's Democratic leaders -- and only Democrats are leaders here these days -- insist that the pension problem is behind them. They are looking for new ways to raise taxes so that they can keep the spending train going. Even the state's Democratic "moderates" have no appetite for pension reform. Things are going to get worse here before they get better.

A law that would have moved all of Florida's new state and municipal workers who participate in the Florida retirement system into 401(k) style plans failed yesterday, as about one-third of Republicans in the state senate joined Democrats in voting against the plan. The chief proponent of the law, Florida House Speaker Will Weatherford, argued that the system's recent poor investment returns had created an underfunded problem that was going to force the state to contribute $500 million more annually.
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